World market: avocado demand remains high everywhere

 

Demand for avocado, a still fashionable product, remains high everywhere, with increased demand in countries like Germany where the school holidays are over. In China in particular, the upward trend in avocado consumption continues as consumers become more familiar with the product, while Australian growers take the opportunity to ship their very first 40ft container of fruit to market. Asian and may hope for the biggest harvest in their history. However, in European producer countries such as Italy and Spain, avocado production has been hampered by extreme temperatures, above 45 ° C.

Netherlands / Belgium: Satisfactory demand and prices for small-caliber avocados
Kenya continues to ship containers of avocados and will do so until the end of this year. The country currently exports many small calibers of Hass. Tanzania has also started loading containers. The demand for smaller sizes (22 and below) is good, as major exporting countries like Peru are actually shipping larger sizes this year. Therefore, the price of small sizes is expected to increase somewhat while that of large sizes is expected to decline. Currently, the price of small calibers is between 7 and 8 euros. The season will start soon in Chile, Israel and Spain. The quality and volume of production from these countries will affect the price from September / October.

Germany: increased demand after the end of the summer holidays
In Germany, demand for avocados remains high, in particular due to the end of the summer holidays. Currently, avocados from different countries such as Kenya, Peru, South Africa and Colombia can be found on the German market. Kenyan avocados are of a slightly lower quality, as they have not always developed satisfactorily in the ripening chambers, reports a top trader.

Peruvian avocados continue to dominate the summer season, which will end in the next two or three weeks. Avocados from Israel are not expected before the end of October for the “Pinkerton” and “Ettinger” varieties and in November for the “Hass” variety.

There may be an artificial shortage of 18-gauge varieties due to various promotions. However, there are still many 14 and 16 gauge varieties on the market.

In fact, the 14 and 16 can be bought for just under 7 euros. Avocados from Kenya, meanwhile, are available for 6.50 euros and the caliber 18 for around 7.25 euros. Currently, no unusual conditions or short-term shortages are expected.

Spain: Botryosphaeria and temperatures above 45 ° C threaten Spanish avocado production
In the Iberian Peninsula, considering the productions of Spain and Portugal, there are more than 20,000 hectares of avocados, distributed between Malaga, Granada, Cadiz, Huelva, Valencia and the south of Portugal. The Iberian avocado sector, whose season runs from December to April, is working not only to expand surface cultivation, but also to widen its marketing window.

Nevertheless, there is a serious problem in nurseries and young plantations due to Botryosphaeria, a fungus which affects the vegetative growth of trees. Botryosphaeria manifests itself in the fruit set and causes rotting of the fruits, which then fall to the ground. This is a factor which seriously affects the production of avocados of all varieties. The other phenomenon is that of the extreme temperatures and climatic conditions experienced by Spain and which are repeated every year, with temperatures sometimes exceeding 45 ° C. These unusually high temperatures cripple the production of avocados of all varieties. These excessively high temperatures cause paralysis of fruit growth. In the event of a lack of water, as is currently the case, the tree weakens and drops the fruit to the ground. The fall in fruit this year is global, which means that the harvest forecast will not live up to expectations one more year, although production is so far estimated to exceed that of the ‘last year.

Italy: low price on the Italian avocado market due to a large product supply
It is too early to make estimates for the 2021/22 Sicilian avocado production campaign. “We expect the season to start a little later than last year, due to very low average temperatures in the spring. After fears related to the 46 ° C reached at the turn of July and August, temperatures now seem to have stabilized, ”said a Sicilian entrepreneur. “The trees are full, but it won’t be an exceptional year like the previous one, which produced 1,400 tonnes of products. « 

A Milanese wholesaler adds: “With regard to Peruvian Hass avocados, we have noticed a drop in prices, due to a large supply of products. The import season in Italy started in late April / early May and will likely end in a few weeks. While Hass avocados are usually bought for as much as 10.00 EUR, prices are currently around 5.00 EUR. Foreign markets, like the Netherlands, have been lucky with Avocado Greenskin. The product has been very successful, in particular due to the limited quantities available. Those who marketed varieties such as Pinkerton, Fuerte and Ryan from South Africa and Peru observed prices of 12.00-13.00 euros. « 

South Africa: Fuerte prices are almost twice as high as Hass prices
Prices were good in the early European market before the arrival of avocados from Peru, but the export market was subsequently difficult for South African exporters. Exports are now picking up in late regions as Peruvian volumes decline; farmers in these regions leave their fruit on the trees while waiting for better market conditions.

South African lawyers could still arrive in Europe until week 46.

Harvest volumes are similar to last year, around 16 million 4 kg boxes, which is lower than expected at the start of the season, given the good summer rains experienced by the producing regions.

A local trader notes that on volumes destined for the domestic market, the quality of Fuerte was not as good as last year and that some damage was caused by the wind. He noted, however, that the quality of the lawyers in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland) was very good.

In the local market, the average price of avocados is R16.06 (Euro 0.9) per kilogram. According to a Johannesburg municipal market trader, Fuerte prices are close to record levels for this time of year and have remained high for a month at R110 (6.2 euros) and R130 (7.3 euros) for a box of 4 kg, while Hass are almost half the price at R60 to R70 per 4 kg box.

Hass is still a bit cheaper than Fuerte – unlike most other parts of the world – but this year the gap is particularly large. Much of the small Hass fruit is destined for the processing sector (eg for guacamole for export), which puts great pressure on Hass volumes.

The local hotel and restaurant sector, traditionally Hass consumer, is still at half mast.

China: growing interest of Chinese consumers in avocados, imports up 27%
Avocados have become very fashionable in recent years. They are found on the tables of many Chinese consumers. An increasing number of people are now familiar with this fruit and have started adding it to their diet.

Recently, Prohass announced its latest statistics, indicating that the country plans to export around 467,000 tonnes of avocados in the 2021 season, which is 27% more than the previous season. Peru has already become the largest supplier of avocados to the Chinese market thanks to a very stable supply and a high quality product.

North America: Smaller Fruits, Greater Demand for Avocados in North America
As the growing regions wind down the avocado season, attention shifts to sizing and pricing.

Nationally, California is slowly finishing its avocado production. “They finished the estimate at about 95-96%,” says one California importer. « We have about three to four weeks left. » This week, projections predict a movement of 6-7 million pounds of fruit. Next week it will be 5 million, then a gradual weekly decrease will be felt.

Offshore, Peru is in the same situation. “There are about three to four weeks left there as well. Within a month, Mexico will be the only country in the running, ”says the importer.

That said, the year is different for Mexico compared to last season. Fruit on trees is much smaller this year for several reasons. Last year’s harvest was very bountiful. The weather in Mexico was also a big factor. We are in the middle of the rainy season, but the fruits need sunlight to grow and, according to reports, there is no hot spell yet.

As a result, the sizing of avocados from Mexico appears to vary at this time. “Currently, there are nearly 50% of 70 and 84, so berries,” according to the Californian importer. “The industry is going to be forced to downgrade. Thus, 48 ​​users will have to go to 60, 60 users will go to 70. Otherwise, there will simply be no more options ”.

He adds that overall, demand for sizes 48 is around 34% of the industry, and stockouts are currently only around 18%. “Industry stocks are running out and within two weeks the choice will no longer be possible. Either take a size smaller or you won’t have a product, ”he says, noting that this is the biggest challenge right now – getting the industry to accept smaller sizes. .

In the meantime, demand for avocados has been quite strong and stands at around £ 50 million per week. “We’ve gone up to almost £ 60 million, but even at that price the demand is surprisingly and relatively high. « 

Indeed, prices have experienced some volatility over the past three or four months. Currently, the 48 are trading at around $ 65, the 60 to around $ 50, and the 70 to 30 dollars. The price difference is considerable which may force people to opt for these small sizes.

However, prices are expected to recover when Mexico becomes the sole supplier country. « In a few weeks the 48 could reach 80 dollars and I would not be surprised to see 60 in the 60-65 dollars and 70 closer to 40 dollars », continues the importer. “The difficulty for the packers is that they pay 65-70 pesos / kilo and with such a small package of 48 and 60, they have to increase that price. It doesn’t work for their pricing model. We anticipate that in three weeks, when Mexico is in the driver’s seat, we will be able to see 80-85 pesos / kilo, which will keep prices high ”.

He adds that the calibration will catch up with the lawyers, but it will take four to five weeks. “We could be faced with the issue of calibration for the next two months. They need to catch up and until that happens I don’t see any price cuts in sight. « 

Australia: high expectations for what could be the biggest Australian avocado crop ever
According to statistics, a total of 423,281 avocado platters were shipped for the week ending July 9, an increase of 23% from the previous week and 7% from the forecast of 396,431 platters. North Queensland provided the majority of fruit with 52%, followed by central Queensland with 39%. Consumers have benefited from low retail prices in recent weeks, with supermarkets and grocery stores lowering prices for Hass avocados to between $ 1 and $ 2 a unit.

A major Australian avocado producer has said he expects 2021 to have one of the biggest avocado harvests the country has ever produced, which will open up new markets both nationally and internationally. An industry representative said: “Over the past two months we have packed a first 40ft Australian sea container for Singapore. Australia has done a lot of 20ft containers in the past and again this season there have been a few going to Asia (from another company), but we never got into the large bath, namely the 40 foot fruit containers. Price has been a big factor over the last ten years in attracting new customers, so when the supply is plentiful, we have the potential to attract more consumers to the product ”.

He added that the weather conditions have been surprisingly good in all the production areas: “There is probably only one, central New South Wales, which has had too much rain, but all the other regions had good weather conditions so the size and volume are increasing. «